Facebook took position on iOS 14 ; the end of IDFA and Audience Network or a HUGE opportunity to grab high value users half price without MMPs?

Facebook took position on iOS 14 ; the end of IDFA and Audience Network or a HUGE opportunity to grab high value users half price without MMPs?

On the 26 August, Facebook finally made a statement on iOS 14 and Facebook will not collect IDFA on iOS 14 device !

Facebook announced on iOS 14 :

  • Facebook will not collect IDFA
  • Monetisation is at risk
  • FAN may disappear
  • Security is with Off-Facebook

This is a big shift for the industry as many gaming verticals, especially hypercausual that worth billions with huge IDFA database that they collected for years and advertise on ! MMPs as well are going to be shift by this turn around without IDFA as for weeks everyone worked on this popup integration/optin rate prediction in order to get in some way the IDFA and/or use fingerprinting with consent even if sometimes less trustable.

On the article Preparing Our Partners for iOS 14 by Facebook :

It is clearly said IDFA will not be collected meaning :

  • NO VTA sent
  • NO ad creative granularity sent
  • ATT framework – 1 conversion value limited in time and bits ; instead of different trigger conversions
  • NO targeting based on 3rd parties sdk – No targeting on recent purchaser of similar apps.
  • Campaign level data = Conversion values not adset or ad level

What does it impacts mainly for Facebook:

  • AEO / VO campaigns – Earlier postback on install ? Faster monetisation needed on IAP ? Contextual targeting ? Price decreasing?
  • FAN – End of FAN related to the end of the personalisation and SDK opt-in requirement outside of facebook environment ?
  • Monetisation – Lower eCPM related to contextual targeting? Less monetisation ? Some buisiness model at risk?

ARPU may decrease :

A terrible news for ARPPU for sure! Indeed since AEO had been launched in 2016 ARPU significantly increased as events were feeding the algorithm ! Facebook worked for years on structure for scale ; with year by year more insight fed by so many postback that now will be restricted in number, bits, value and time.

https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_presentations/FB-Q4’16-Earnings-Slides.pdf

FAN inventory may be easily saturated and not profitable quickly :

Facebook audience network might disappear – Indeed even targeting <iOS 14 on FAN might be fast not enough according to the share of voice of those users on the market :


Indeed, on audience network blog they predict a drop of ‘ more than 50% ‘ in audience network revenue that might make It not profitable for both side Advertiser/Publisher.

It worth to ad this is however not only related to admonetisation itself, let’s not forget a lot of advertiser said they will shift some spend from iOS to Android and not use the popup- impacting the eCPM and also the lack of high-value targeting related to contextual targeting instead of behavioural targeting.

BUT NO ALL IS NOT OVER !

  1. Facebook will update Its SDK :

You will be able to split iOS 14 campaigns threw another ad account – even if it is not optimal to have different api path it will still help to get some info.

2. eCPM are predicted low, a chance to grab some high value users :

iPhone users are the most expensive of the world ! This could actually be a huge opportunity for you to rise your iPhone user base for half price ! At the end if you got a proper value in your games your end goal is to seduce your users to make him reach the IAP ! With a proper CRM onboarding inapp you could convince half price twice more users and actually make benefits from it.

3. Facebook still got your data and many personal identifier :

IDFA is not the only way to target within facebook environment ! Facebook can use your Facebook social ID, email and phone number to build audience. With Whats app on top they are sure they will still be able to target you. Now up to advertiser to ask the right information to the users when they onboard them.

Is a signup wall ok? It seems that this will require a consent, so follow actively apple update – to date only security SSO are allowed without consent.

Facebook got enough data to know your interest and still profile you. Only the inventory and touch point might be harder to get if FAN ends.

Facebook ios 14

4. Facebook is also branding – even if branding tracking is at risk without VTA

Facebook is also part of a media-mix model! Yes the Back to school campaigns arrive and not sure brands will shift all their budget to android. Even less when they will be able to get a proper reach half price with less competition. Facebook is still the place to be to reach users everywhere in the world. Within his own apps Instagram, Facebook, Messenger, Whats app facebook still got increasing DAU !

However the main issue will still be in the measure…. As if you launch a video campaign and a user go into the store Apple will assume the attribution is for… Apple.

5. Retargeting on Android is still here !

As they are/were cheaper let’s not forget that they were way more re-engage than others ! Criteo is 35% market share only iOS versus Android! And lets not forget this ‘redownload’ info sent by apple that will be actually gold in next month.

6. Last clic and direct response is not everything !

Spending money without last clic attribution model does not mean you waste your money at all as soon as you adapt yourself into the market you are living in ! If you have a proper USPs users are still going to make purchase in your product. It is actually an exiting news to create a new standard with more uncertainty but maybe more accuracy that mix incrementality and prediction models.

7. More profit in IAP for you and Apple, better USPs !

At the end of the day each advertiser will have a huge pressure to monetise quickly as the timer will run ! This is a great news for apple and its 30% fees that will probably even push you later to pay by default with apple pay. What apple will loose on rtg IAP he might get it back on better apps with higher USPs and onboarding program to make the user pay faster.

8. iOS 14 won’t be for all device

Indeed the old iPhone (<= iPhone 6) will not be able to upgrade anyway and so will still be reachable, but will be saturated easily.

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